资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

Sept. was the worst month of 2023 for equities and the second worst for bonds, despite a resilient U.S. 经济持续增长. 罪魁祸首是油价、利率和美国经济的持续上涨.S. Dollar.

今年夏天，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的价格为每桶60美元，并在7月和8月走高. 在9月底达到90美元的低点之前. 10年期美国国债.S. 第三季度开始时，美国国债收益率为3.82%，季度末为4%.57%，达到4%.到10月为止8%. 3. 截至本季度末，美国经济增长放缓.S. Dollar had risen for 11 consecutive weeks—a remarkable feat that ranks as the second-longest winning streak in the index’s history.

美联储在9月6日宣布暂停加息. 并指出了美国经济软着陆的可能性.S. 经济在增长, 他们还改变了维持“更长时间的高利率”的预期.“软着陆无疑比经济衰退更可取. Still, 投资者被迫对资产重新定价, 调整估值以应对粘性通胀的影响, 加速率, 以及“更长时间更高”的利率环境. The trio’s collective surge could have a sinister impact on financial markets if the trend continues. 在九种主要资产类别中，第三季度只有两种出现了上涨. 大宗商品上涨4.7%，现金增长1%.3%.

由于较高的货币市场利率和债券收益率提供了越来越有吸引力的竞争, 9月股市连续第二个月下跌.，以S开头&标准普尔500指数下跌4点.8%. 小型股表现更差，下跌5%.国际和新兴市场股票跌幅较小，为3%.6%和2.分别为4%. 在美国的11个界别中，有10个界别&标普500指数当月的总回报率为负，房地产行业表现最差，为负7点.3%. 能源股再次成为表现最好的股，上涨2点.6%. 通信服务与能源一起成为第三季度唯一的赢家. 在年初至今的基础上，S&标普500指数保持强势13点.总回报率1%, 但最大的股票和市场其他股票之间的差异是极端的. 50个最大的S&标准普尔500指数(s&p 500)上涨25%&标普500等权指数仅上涨1点.7%.

彭博U.S. 债券综合指数回归-2.9月份为5%.这使得其YTD收益为负(-1).2%). The 38-month progression in yields from the record low in March 2020 has been painful for existing bond investors. However, 事实证明，赌博十大靠谱软件增持短期债券是有益的, 因为他们至今保持了正回报(+1).9%). 与此同时，10年期美债到期.S. 美国国债有望首次出现连续第三个日历年下跌.

本周四，10月. 12日是2022年熊市低点一周年. The S&标普500指数上涨22点.自底部以来增长了4%，即使是-6.自7月31日的夏季峰值以来下跌了6%. 该指数较1月11日创下的历史新高下跌了11%. 3, 2022. 赌博十大靠谱软件也即将走出股市历史上最糟糕的季节性时期. 过去13个月中的12个. 紧随其后的是10月10日的抛售. 篮板，包括去年的8个.1%的反弹.

短期内，季节性因素可能会再次对投资者有利. 石油价格最近有所回落, 因为在繁忙的夏季旅游季节，需求通常会下降. Friday’s surprisingly strong job report (accompanied by muted wage growth) suggests corporate earnings also may prove resilient and foretell some upside surprises during the Q3 earnings reporting season that kicks off this week.

债券市场的恐慌可能很快就会结束. 收益率达到2007年以来的最高水平, 债券的吸引力似乎越来越大. 从许多技术指标来看，股票和债券都处于超卖状态. 然而，在债券收益率稳定下来之前，很难预期长期的牛市反弹.

对华盛顿和美国政府功能失调的担忧.S. 财政政策的逆风最近已成为债券市场焦虑的一个重要来源. 尽管就业接近充分，预算赤字仍占GDP的7%, 而联邦债务已经上升到GDP的120%. 此外,你.S. 7月份，偿债成本达到税收收入的14%. Since crossing the historically critical 14% threshold, 10-year Treasury yields spiked from 3.96% to 4.8%. Our 本月图表 shows that 10-year Treasury yields are highly correlated to the net interest costs on the government’s debt. Additional moderation of inflation and needed fiscal restraint would help appease those bond investors currently sending a no-confidence message to elected officials in Washington.

Lastly, regarding Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel and the resulting human tragedy in the Middle East, 赌博十大靠谱软件希望谨慎地得出有关经济和市场影响的结论. While the initial spike in oil prices and flight to traditional safe-haven assets (Treasurys and the U.S. 美元)是合乎逻辑的, such reactions haven’t always proven durable after previous geopolitical events or even prior Middle East wars. Geopolitical events are an ever-present consideration for investors but impossible to precisely anticipate. Strategic diversification helps protect portfolios against unforeseen risks but also provides investors exposure to markets’ many opportunities.

约翰·西尔维亚的《赌博十大软件》 经济主任

美国国债收益率在上个月大幅上升，但并非没有充分的理由. Interest rates reflect expectations for economic growth, inflation, Fed policy, and politics. 任何资产的价格都会考虑预期因素——房价、股票和债券. 过去几个月，实际数据已经超出了市场的预期.

• 首先，经济增长强于预期. 在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最新的经济预测中, 2023年的增长速度从1%上调至2%.1%. In addition, private market analysts have dropped their near-term expectations for recession. 联邦公开市场委员会对2023年失业率的预测降至3%.8%从4.6月份的数据是1%.
• Expectations for more robust economic growth reflected increased consumer spending and business investment gains. 实际消费者支出增长了3%.过去三个月的增长率为8%. 商业投资全面强劲, 包括在结构中, 设备, 知识产权. Leading indicators, such as lower jobless claims and core capital goods orders, signal growth ahead.
• 最新的就业数据增强了人们对经济强劲增长的预期. 为9月.在过去的三个月里，美国就业人数增加了36.6万人，平均增加了26.6万人. 这些增长高于平均水平，表明经济增长速度强于趋势.
• 第二，通胀预期上升. 联邦公开市场委员会上调了对2025年总体和核心通胀目标的预期. 此外，衡量通胀可能性的价格压力(St. Louis FRB) in the year ahead signaled a better than 80% probability that the inflation rate would exceed its target a year ahead.
• 第三，联邦公开市场委员会将目标基金利率从4%上调.6% to 5.2024年1%. 2025年，联邦公开市场委员会将其目标基金利率上调至3%.9%从3.4%.
• Finally, the politics of the debt ceiling and the ouster of the House Speaker have raised concerns about another possible government shutdown and downgrading of the U. S. 信用评级.
• Contrary to many doom-and-gloom reports, business investment gains have been strong in structures. 夏洛特、凤凰城、坦帕和达拉斯-沃斯堡的写字楼租金都在上涨. 奥兰多、坦帕、亚特兰大和凤凰城的零售要价都在上涨. 许多地区的工业租金都在上涨，尤其是哥伦布、杰克逊维尔和福特堡. 劳德黛尔.
• Recent gains in productivity have improved the outlook for the moderation of inflation and support the case for reduced cost pressures and increased profit gains. 第二季度，生产率提高了3%.5%，而去年同期增长了1%.3%. Higher productivity tends to be associated with lower inflation and greater profits over time, 尽管实际工资更高. 这些结果对投资者来说是积极的.
• 继续赌博十大靠谱软件之前的评论, 对美国长期国债市场收益率上升的预测确实实现了. 经济衰退和美联储宽松政策的预测已经消失. 此外, 未来几年债务与gdp之比的持续上升, 正如国会预算办公室所预测的那样, and the threat of another downgrade will be associated with higher inflation and thus higher interest rates for the long term. 随着赌博十大靠谱软件的前进, we do expect that the 10-year yield will decline modestly over the next year as inflation moderates and the Fed holds policy rates steady. 然而，政治上的不确定性是一个不确定因素.
• 赌博十大靠谱软件对美元走强的预期也得到了证实. 最近的你. S. Dollar strength reflects a reversal of sentiment on the pace of economic growth both here (no recession) and abroad (weaker recovery). U.S. expectations for better growth, combined with lower expectations for growth in the Eurozone, the U.K.美国和中国在前几个月扭转了美元的跌势.
• Corporate profits remain a challenge for investors as global growth prospects have diminished. 税前利润仅增长2%.第二季度下降了2%.比一年前增长了7%. The continued rise in unit labor costs and interest rates for businesses has impacted realized profits and expectations for valuations going forward.
• 持续的, above-target inflation and steady (no easing) Fed policy have forced a revaluation of the discounted value of future earnings. This inflation has suggested that interest rates will remain “higher for longer” and will offer investors a real alternative to equity earnings.
• 尽管经济衰退的预测已经逐渐消失，但美国经济仍在衰退. S. financial markets continue to adjust to the economic reality of moderate but positive trend-like economic growth, “更高更长时间”的利率, 与大流行前相比，未来一年的利润预期也有所降低.
• 回想起来, 赌博十大靠谱软件继续关注未来三到五年的前景, given that the difficult period of 2022/early 2023 would eventually give way to better economic and financial times.